| Segment | USD B | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier models | 312 | 25.9% | +52% |
| Data-center build | 286 | 23.8% | +44% |
| Accelerator silicon | 216 | 17.9% | +41% |
| Energy & grid | 128 | 10.6% | +89% |
| Enterprise software | 114 | 9.5% | +19% |
| Robotics & autos | 78 | 6.5% | +33% |
| Research & safety | 42 | 3.5% | +12% |
| Other / long tail | 28 | 2.3% | +7% |
Three Bottlenecks the Trillion-Dollar Year Did Not Solve.
A side column from the reporters who built the lead story — on the friction that capital alone cannot buy off.
Interconnection requests in PJM, ERCOT and MISO now average 4.7 years from filing to energization. Three hyperscalers responded in 2025 by signing behind-the-meter deals for nuclear capacity — a strategy that works for them and, grid operators note quietly, for almost no one else.
The result is a two-tier physical infrastructure: a private fast-lane for the largest buyers, and a public queue that everyone else waits in. State regulators have begun to push back, but no rule has yet reversed the trend.
Senior research-engineer compensation crossed $8 million in total value for the period, with several packages reported above $20 million. Labs compete not on salary but on compute allocation: the right to train is now itself a benefit.
The deeper problem is the bench. One lab estimated that the global pool of engineers capable of leading a frontier training run is below 400 people — a number smaller than the senior roster of a single mid-cap software firm.
The May paper estimating public-text exhaustion by mid-2027 did not surprise the labs — but it did force a public accounting. Responses fall into three buckets: synthetic data (uneven), multimodal corpora from video (legally fraught), and proprietary licensing (expensive and slow).
The most consequential deals of the year were not model releases but data licenses: 14 of the top 20 by value involved publishers, studios, or archives rather than software.
What the desk could not find, in any of the 247 filings, was a lab that claimed to have solved the problem. The wall moved closer; nobody claimed to have walked through it.
If FY26 was the year capital arrived in force, FY27 is shaping up to be the year the constraints under it became visible. The next volume of this report will spend less time on totals and more on what the totals cannot buy.